Use this Monte Carlo prop firm simulator to test how win rate, risk/reward, risk per trade, fixed drawdown and trailing drawdown rules affect your chance of passing a challenge.
Change your strategy stats and challenge rules, then compare how small risk changes affect your probability of reaching the profit target before breaching fixed or trailing drawdown.
Expectancy: 0.50R per trade
Failure is measured against the high-water mark.
Pass rate
97.6%
Avg. trades to target
23
Avg. max drawdown
3.9%
Outcome volatility
2.7
250 simulated challenge attempts. Green paths reach the target, red paths fail the drawdown rule.
Use this as a risk-awareness tool.
The simulation uses simplified fixed-risk trades. Real trading results include slippage, fees, rule violations, news risk, and psychological execution errors.
Current account size: $100,000
Most traders focus on hitting the profit target. The harder part is surviving the path toward that target. This section explains how drawdown rules, risk per trade, and natural variance change the probability of passing a prop firm challenge.
A strategy can have positive expectancy and still fail a challenge because results do not arrive in a clean order. A few losses at the wrong time can breach a daily or overall drawdown limit before the edge has enough trades to show up.
Fixed drawdown is measured against the starting balance. Trailing drawdown follows the high-water mark, so early profits can raise the failure line and make position sizing feel much tighter than it looks on paper.
Most traders overestimate win rate and underestimate drawdown. The strongest use case is to enter real journal data: your actual win rate, average reward, risk behavior, and number of trades per evaluation period.
Short answers for traders using the simulator to compare challenge risk and pass-rate assumptions.
MMplatinum helps you track trades, review behavior, and see whether the stats you use in this simulator match your actual execution.
Educational disclaimer
This simulator is for education and risk awareness only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a guarantee of any prop firm result. Real trading includes costs, slippage, execution errors, and rules that may differ from this simplified model.